The country's gross domestic product had grown 0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter and 6.3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. However, combined quarter-on-quarter growth over the previous four quarters implied growth of 6.8 percent. The mismatch arose due to official “seasonal adjustment” revisions by the country's National Bureau of Statistics to quarterly growth data in 2022. While such revisions are routinely done, economists say their effect has become greater in recent years. The lack of a detailed explanation of the process illustrates the difficulty of analyzing China's statistics at a time when the trajectory of its economy is considered crucial to global growth. “That's where we are right now. How much has the economy grown in the second quarter, or [has it] right? That's a very important question for both markets and policymakers,” said Louis Kuijs, chief Asia economist at S&P Global. "Everyone asks: 'Is the Chinese economy stagnating?' It is not easy to give an impermeable answer to that.
China “has certainly become more of a black box, and is continually moving on that trajectory,” said Shehzad Qazi, chief operating officer of China Beige Book, which publishes alternative economic indicators based on Job Function Email Database surveys of private companies in the country. Surveys have always implied weaker consumption than official figures show. You are viewing a snapshot of an interactive chart. This is most likely because you are offline or JavaScript is disabled in your browser. Long-standing questions about how to interpret China's economic indicators take on a new sense of urgency in 2023, when official data points to a loss of momentum following the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions. Policymakers are grappling with trade headwinds, weak consumption and a property cash crisis that has dragged on for nearly two years. As in many other countries, China's official data is often seen as a "benchmark" that can be complemented by other indicators, ranging from steel production to energy consumption.
While some new data series have been added, a wide range of other sources have been discontinued, often for no clear reason. It has also become more difficult to access complementary and detailed information. “Disappearing series have been part of the challenge of analyzing China in general, but accessing reliable data has definitely become more difficult in recent years,” said Diana Choyleva, chief economist at forecasting firm Enodo Economics in London. Questions about the reliability of national data arose under the country's zero Covid policy. In the absence of clear information from local authorities, traffic data was used as an indicator of the severity of citywide closures. The government stopped publishing death data after a nationwide outbreak began. This month, Zhejiang province released and then removed figures showing a sharp rise in cremations. Carlos Casanova, senior Asia economist at UBP, said he had not been able to access detailed data on local government land sales on Wind, a data platform, as its use outside the country was restricted this year. “If I had to guess, I would say the reason for that is that pockets of stress have appeared.and they don’t want the market to get too carried away,” he said.